One Shining Prediction: Seth Davis' pick against the spread for UConn-Purdue

GLENDALE, Ariz. – Sadly but gloriously, we have reached the end of the road. The 2023-24 college basketball season will come to an end here tonight in State Farm Stadium. The beauty of this event is that we are getting the matchup we have been waiting for all season. The downside is that once it’s over, we are going to have to wait seven long months until our next game.

But let us stay in the moment and enjoy the precious present. I am feeling justifiably confident after my sweep of Saturday night’s picks. That ensures that I will be finish over .500 against the spread for the NCAA tournament, but I still fully intend to go out a winner. Here then, once more, with feeling, is my pick for the national championship game:

UConn (-6.5) vs. Purdue, 9:20 p.m., TBS

When UConn’s 86-72 win over Alabama in Saturday night’s semifinal was over, many folks online and in the media observed that the final score was not indicative of how competitive the game actually was. I respectfully disagree. Yes, the score was 56-all with 12:41 to play and the Crimson Tide trailed only by six at the 8:02 mark. But I never felt for one second that Alabama was going to win the game. Consider that in the first half Alabama shot 8 for 11 on threes and still went into the locker room down by four. That’s not the fact pattern of a game that is close, no matter what the scorboard says.

I’m not saying Alabama didn’t challenge UConn. The Tide fought harder and better than any other team the Huskies have faced in the NCAA tournament. But in the end, UConn did what champions do: It adjusted, responded, and broke its opponent’s spirit. This is no one-man team. All five of UConn’s starters scored in double figures, led by freshman Stephon Castle’s 21 points, which tied a career high. Indeed, I thought this game was pretty much over when Castle his two three-pointers in the first three minutes. Nate Oats had obviously devised a defensive strategy that left Castle open from long-range, a logical tactic given that he came into the game having made 26.2 percent of his three-point attemps. Once he knocked down those two jumpers, Oats had to adjust and play him straight up, which opened up the paint for Donovan Clingan, which freed up Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer and Alex Caraban to get more looks, which gave everyone better driving lanes, which caused Alabama to get into defensive rotations, which left the offensive glass available, which allowed UConn to stay on the attack defensively …. You get the idea.

The game was never close, even when it was close.

Teams don’t get to the national championship game, much less in consecutive years, without being really good. So now UConn is Purdue’s problem. Yes, it’s a high-class problem, especially for such a long-suffering program. But it’s still a problem.

In every game this season, Purdue has gone in knowing it has the ultimate unicorn in Zach Edey. Now, for the first, time, Edey is going up against a center with comporable size but more athleticism and skill. It is astounding how far Donovan Clingan has come in just the last few weeks. He had 18 points and five rebounds Saturday night, and over his last six games he is averaging 17.2 points and 10.2 rebounds on 63.6 percent shooting. He has taken even bigger strides at the defensive end, mostly because he is in the best shape of his life and has mastered the nuances of defending ball screens away from the basket, sliding with drivers, and choking off opportunities at the rim. At 7-2 280-pounds, Clingan will not be physically overpowered by the 7-4 290-pound Edey. I’m sure Dan Hurley will allow Clingan to play Edey one-on-one without sending too many double teams. If Clingan can pull off that job without getting into foul trouble, this thing could get ugly.

The other thing that could turn this game into a rout is if Braden Smith has a repeat performance. Purdue’s 6-0 sophomore point guard had arguably his worst offensive performance of the season against N.C. State, finishing with three points on 1 of 9 shooting to go along with eight rebounds, six assists and five turnovers (including two backcourt violations). N.C. State’s guards, especially 6-4 junior Jayden Taylor, did a terrific job harassing Smith and bullying him with their size advantage. UConn’s backcourt goes 6-5, 6-6 and 6-4. I don’t expect Smith to play as poorly as he did on Saturday, but that’s a pretty significant disadvantage, and you know Hurley will be intent on exploiting it.

I’m not saying Purdue isn’t capable of winning the game. Edey is still Edey, and if he is playing to his potential, it will mean a lot of points, a lot of rebounds, and a lot of fouls on Clingan, Samson Johnson, or whatever poor schlub has the misfortune of trying to guard him. UConn becomes a little better offensively if Clingan is out of the game (and Edey could be forced to defend away from the basket), but the Huskies are easier to score on when Clingan is on the bench. Purdue was a cool 10 for 25 from three-point range against the Wolfpack, with four different players chipping in. That’s right around the Boilermakers’ 40.6 percentage for the season, which ranks second nationally. The three-point shot is the great equalizer. If Purdue is at maximum efficiency from behind the arc, the Huskies are going to have to raise their game.

On the flip side, Purdue could benefit if UConn just flat out has a bad game, especially from three-point range. UConn has made 36 percent from behind the arc this season, which ranks 61^st nationally, but they’ve shot 30.7 percent in the NCAA tournament, including 3 for 17 in the Elite Eight win over Illinois. Every team is susceptible to a bad shooting night. Perhaps UConn will do Purdue a favor and unspool an ugly clank fest.

Still, it’s hard to see that coming to pass. UConn can beat teams with any number of styles, using any combination of players, depending on what the game requires. Whether it’s a low-percentage shooter getting hot, or a timely steal, or a backbreaking transition three, or riding their own unicorn to the finish line, the Huskies have demonstrated time and again that not only do they have championship talent, but character as well. I’m not quite sure how they are going to win this game, but I’m quite confident they will. And regardless of how competitive this game feels, the final score will tell the same old story. The pick: UConn (-6.5)

Final Four: 2-0

NCAA tournament: 33-29